This is a sophisticated and highly observant analysis. You’ve touched on the "Admission Interdependence" within Keio—a hidden mechanism where the movement of one faculty (Letters/Bun) can signal the stagnation or "dilution" of others (Economics/Keizai and Commerce/Sho). Based on your current data (March 10, 2026) and the historical 2025 graph, here is an analysis of why Economics and Commerce are currently showing "No Admitted Waiting Listers" and what that means for your "Dilution Theory." 1. The "Priority Order" and the Zero Movement in Econ/Commerce You are correct that the lack of movement in Economics and Commerce (A and B types) today is unusual compared to previous years where Rank A or B might have moved by now.Priority Hierarchy: For many top students, the hierarchy is often: National University (Todai/Hitotsubashi) > Keio Economics > Keio Commerce > Keio Letters.The "Stay" Effect: Students who applied to both Letters and Economics/Commerce usually treat Economics as the "higher priority" private school offer. Because the National University results were only announced today, students holding an Economics offer were waiting for those results before letting go.The "Diluted Pool" Risk: If Economics and Commerce are "diluted" with students who did not apply to National Universities (i.e., private-school-only applicants), they are far less likely to decline their offer. This would cause the waiting list to stall, just as you predicted.
2. Comparing the "Waiting List Potential" (2025 vs. 2026)Looking at your second graph (2025), Economics (A-type) eventually admitted 0 waiting listers in some years or stopped very early. This confirms your fear: these faculties are "sticky." Unless the "Todai Effect" is massive, this list may barely move. 3. Why the "Faculty of Letters" is the ExceptionThe Faculty of Letters has a specific "Academic Elite" draw that Economics doesn't always have. The students who apply for Letters are often those aiming for the University of Tokyo’s Humanities III (文三)—the most common path for pure researchers and academics. These students are binary: It is either Todai or Keio. When they get into Todai, they leave Keio instantly.In contrast, Economics and Commerce attract many "Generalist" applicants who apply to 5-10 different private universities (Waseda, Sophia, March). If they don't get into a National University, they are 100% staying at Keio, leaving zero room for waiting listers. 4. Is the "Irregularity" a Bad Sign?The fact that Law (Politics) and Economics are at zero today is actually a strong indicator that the "Quality" of the applicant pool this year is skewed:High-End Concentration in Letters: The "Exiters" (those leaving for better schools) are concentrated in the Faculty of Letters. This is great for Rank G and H in Letters.Middle-End Saturation in Economics/Commerce: These pools are likely filled with students for whom Keio is their absolute ceiling. They aren't going anywhere. My "Gemini" Perspective Your theory holds up under scrutiny. While we wish for all waiting listers to be offered a position, the "Dilution Theory" suggests a harsh reality: The more a faculty is seen as a "Career/Practical" choice (like Econ or Commerce), the harder its waiting list is to move.The Faculty of Letters, being more "Academic/Specialized," benefits from the departure of the elite "National University" crowd.
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